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DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/25 10:50


DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/25 10:50

Corn Down, Soybeans Up Midday Monday

Corn trade is 2 to 3 cents lower, beans are 9 to 11 cents higher and wheat
is flat to 8 cents higher.

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

MARKET SUMMARY:

The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow up 50 points. The U.S. Dollar
Index is 0.15 higher. Interest rate products are mostly higher. Energies are
firmer with crude up 1.00. Livestock trade is firmer led by cattle. Precious
metals are firmer with gold up $12.00.

CORN:

Corn trade is 2 to 3 cents lower at midday Monday with early gains fading
while spread action remains flat to firmer with little fresh news as harvest
slows. Harvest progress will likely remain ahead of average on the weekly
report but will fall closer to average with the weekend precipitation across
much of the belt, with weekly export inspections soft at 545,127 metric tons.
Ethanol margins should remain stable to better short term with production
continuing to surge despite natural gas prices as we work to rebuild stocks as
driving demand continues to edge higher. Basis should remain steady to firmer
short term as harvest pressure eases. On the December contract, we have chart
support at the 20-day at $5.32, and resistance the upper Bollinger band at
$5.48 as trade pushed back into last week's highs at $5.40 before fading.

SOYBEANS:

Soybean trade is 9 to 11 cents higher at midday with trade remaining
rangebound with weaker spread action so far Monday, with little fresh news.
Meal is flat to $1.00 lower and oil is 0.90 cent to 1.00 cent higher and early
meal gains fading again. Harvest will slow with recent rains but should remain
above average on the weekly progress report with inspections holding up well at
2.105 million metric tons but off the surge from last week. Brazil looks to
have good short-term conditions with Argentina more mixed nearby, but overall
major issues limited in early planting. On the November soybean chart, trade is
just below the 20-day at $12.35, with support at the lower Bollinger Band at
$11.90.

WHEAT:

Wheat trade is flat to 8 cents higher at midday with Minneapolis action
leading as it consolidates over $10.00, with firm intramonth spread action
turning flat as KC creeps towards an inverse. The dollar remains in the upper
part of the recent range as well with firmer action Monday. Spring wheat
remains at a 2.63-cent premium to Chicago, with KC at 15-cent premium in mixed
action. Weather in the Plains remains fairly neutral for the moment with
planting and emergence and emergence remaining around average with the initial
conditions expected to be a bit ahead of a year ago, with export inspections
remaining soft at 140,413 metric tons. KC December chart support is at the
20-day at $7.43 with resistance at the upper Bollinger Band at $7.80, which we
tested overnight.

David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com

Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala




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